The neighborhoods hardest hit by COVID-19 job losses are home to workers in industries like tourism and transportation, which are bearing the brunt of the economic shutdown. To identify which neighborhoods are most at risk, The Urban Institute estimated how many low-income jobs have been lost by residents in each census tract or are at risk when stay-at-home orders are in place.
Because the labor market is changing so rapidly, Urban Institute based their initial estimates on weekly unemployment data by industry from Washington State, which is under a stay-at-home order. While every state is unique and some are not under stay-at-home orders, job loss trends for Washington are likely relatively similar to trends for the nation as a whole, based on historical data.
Urban Institute will update their estimates every week with new Washington State data through the end of April. Starting in early May, they will update estimates every month with national unemployment numbers from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.